Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law

Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law
Articles

Prediction Markets

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Emilio Barone
Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli
Federico Carli
Marconi University
JGTEL

Published 2025-12-31

Keywords

  • Prediction Markets,
  • Information Markets,
  • Event Markets

Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Barone, E., & Carli, F. (2025). Prediction Markets. Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law, 3(2), 55-85. https://doi.org/10.70150/xrt21s70

Abstract

This paper provides an English version of a study originally circulated as a working paper in November 2005 on prediction markets and subsequently published in Italian in Mondo Bancario (January–February 2006). The paper reviews the structure, functioning, and empirical performance of prediction markets, with particular emphasis on the Iowa Electronic Markets and other platforms active in the early 2000s. The analysis covers electoral markets, cur-rent events, entertainment markets, and macroeconomic derivatives, and discusses issues related to information aggregation, forecasting accuracy, and regulation.

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