Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law

Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law
Articles

A Comprehensive Simulation of the Russia-Ukraine Armed Conflict: Applying the Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator)

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  • Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada,
  • Dr. Alam Khan
Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada
University of Economics and Human Sciences
Dr. Alam Khan
Kohat University of Science and Technology (KUST)
Bio

Published 2025-01-02

Keywords

  • Russia,
  • Ukraine,
  • War,
  • Economic Simulating,
  • Economic Desgrowth

Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

A Comprehensive Simulation of the Russia-Ukraine Armed Conflict: Applying the Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator). (2025). Journal of Global Trade, Ethics and Law, 2(2), 34-49. https://doi.org/10.70150/3mgcmz58

Abstract

This paper introduces a new economic simulator in the case of a war, this new economic simulator is entitled “The Post-War Economic Impact Simulator (PEI-Simulator).”  The primary objective of the PEI-Simulator is to analyse wars at various stages to assess their overall socio-economic impact in both the short and long term. Additionally, it shifts away from the traditional benefit-cost analysis of war, introducing a new simulator that represents war scenarios from a more complex and dynamic perspective. The PEI-Simulator assesses the economic impacts of countries thorough the possible scenario of a partial or full war in three different stages: (i) pre-war stage; (ii) war stage; (iii) post-war stage. The analysis makes use of different indicators such as economic desgrowth from war (-δwar), war intensity (I), war losses (-Lwar), economic wear from war (Πwar), level of war tension (Twar), level of diplomatic negotiations (D), and the total economic leaking from war (Ωwar). Lastly, this research applies the PEI-Simulator to evaluate a possible full war between Russia and Ukraine.

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